Leaders of small and mid-sized businesses regained their optimism in early 2026, expressing confidence in driving growth initiatives.
The “2026 Business Leaders Outlook” survey, released by JPMorgan Chase in January, highlights a turnaround in sentiment following a downturn last June, when economic headwinds and uncertainty regarding policy and tariff changes caused some leaders to pause their operational plans.
Companies found themselves increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical shifts and policy changes, leading to a sharp decline in business and economic confidence in June 2025. As they have adapted to the complexities of the current environment, we have seen a rebound in optimism across the national middle market—an encouraging sign pointing toward business growth, hiring, and innovation. Although small businesses were not immune to domestic political and economic concerns, they remained optimistic throughout 2025. Many identified inflation and wage pressures as their biggest challenges for 2026 and took steps to ensure their businesses were prepared for the future.
Matt Beardall, Head of the Northeast Region for J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking, stated: “Leaders in the Northeast are signaling an expansion-oriented mindset, with plans for workforce growth and investments in new products and services.”
Overall, leaders of small and mid-sized businesses are more confident in pursuing growth opportunities, adopting emerging technologies, and—in some cases—forming new strategic partnerships. This is positive news for New York entrepreneurs. Below are some additional key findings from the Business Leaders Outlook regarding expected economic trends in New York this year:
Optimism regarding the local economy is mixed. While 61% of small business leaders in New York City are optimistic about the local economy, optimism among New York middle-market leaders (37%) is slightly below the national average (44%).
Tariffs are impacting businesses. More than half (51%) of New York middle-market leaders report that current tariffs are negatively affecting their operations, while 45% of respondents anticipate that tariff changes in 2026 will have a negative impact on their businesses. Tariffs are the second-highest concern for New York middle-market leaders, with 64% of respondents citing a negative impact on business costs.
New York City small businesses show distinct hiring patterns. While 40% plan to increase hiring, a significant 22% intend to reduce it—a higher proportion than the national average (14%) or that of comparison cities (10–14%).
Despite the challenges, local leaders remain bullish on their own enterprises. Even amidst an uncertain broader outlook, 76% of New York City small businesses are optimistic about their own operations, while 73% of New York middle-market business owners and 74% of Northeast middle-market companies are optimistic about their company’s performance.
Survival of the fittest. A survey of U.S. small business owners reveals that navigating ongoing pressures will be crucial in 2026. Top priorities include building cash reserves (47%), renegotiating supplier terms (36%), and increasing investments in marketing and technology. In New York City, local small businesses are increasingly adopting marketing and event management tools (70% by 2025), e-commerce platforms (58%), and both LLMs and CRMs (57% each).
Poised for growth. Among middle-market business leaders in the Northeast U.S., 61% plan to launch new products and services in 2026. Additionally, 42% plan to increase their workforce, and 75% anticipate growth in revenue and sales.